Study: South Florida Housing Premiums Growing Despite Slowing Rents
Housing premiums in the Miami metropolitan area increased once again despite rising interest rates, a potential worrying sign for the housing market, according to researchers at 鉴黄师app and Florida International University.
Housing premiums in the Miami metropolitan area increased once again despite rising interest rates, a potential worrying sign for the housing market, according to researchers at 鉴黄师app and .
According to the end of March data from the , the typical home in South Florida is 34.7 percent overvalued compared to its long-term pricing trend, up 15-basis points from the month before.
鈥淭his trend does concern me as prices are still going up in the Miami metropolitan area, but not in the rest of the measured areas in Florida,鈥 said , Ph.D., real estate economist with 鉴黄师app鈥檚 . 鈥淧rice growth should be tepid considering the slowdown in rents and rising interest rates, but South Florida prices continue to rise despite these market forces.鈥
The , a part of 鉴黄师app鈥檚 , calculates how overvalued or undervalued the typical home is in the country鈥檚 100 most populated metros. Johnson and fellow researcher , Ph.D., director of FIU鈥檚 Hollo School of Real Estate, examine the difference in actual average home prices in a city and compare it to the long-term home pricing trend for the same city to calculate how overvalued or undervalued a housing market is using publicly available data from Zillow.
鈥淪outh Florida鈥檚 rise in premiums suggests there is a dynamic on the supply side of the market specific to the local market that has yet to be addressed. We want property prices for an area to closely track the area鈥檚 long-term property pricing trend,鈥 Johnson said. 鈥淭his allows purchases today to be worth more soon without worrying about home prices violently swinging above and below the trend. This is a key factor in ensuring the American dream of homeownership. Unfortunately, this has not happened for the last two cycles in South Florida.鈥
Other metropolitan areas in Florida, however, showed positive signs of returning to their long-term trends. Measured against the previous month鈥檚 data, Cape Coral posted a 63-basis point decline in premium; North Port, a 48-basis point decline; Deltona, a 32-basis point decline; Lakeland, a seven-basis point decline; and Tampa, a four-basis point decline.
鈥淎s prices slowly make their way back to normal, it is a tossup between renting and reinvesting monies that would have otherwise been put into ownership and buying a home and building equity in terms of wealth creation,鈥 Beracha said.
Johnson disagrees slightly as 鈥渋t bothers me that home prices continue to increase despite slowing rents and rising mortgage rates. While I do not anticipate a major crash, the area could be in for a prolonged period of home price stagnation, making it slightly better to rent and reinvest at this point.鈥
Both researchers agree that the days of rapid property price appreciation are coming to an end sooner rather than later.
-鉴黄师app-